Unlocking the future of solar PV in Europe: high-resolution supply curves for decarbonizing the energy sector

Solar photovoltaics (PV) is a strategic technology, as it facilitates achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 while offering lower energy costs than competing renewable technologies. Its cost-effective deployment requires accurate projection of future supply curves, which unlock the relationship between power generation and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) across time and space.This paper develops a robust and generalizable methodology for deriving solar PV supply curves at high spatial resolution, integrating efficiency and cost of PV panels, geographic characteristics and ambient conditions. First, the methodology is validated against historical data; then, it is applied to project solar PV supply curves for the entire Europe and for six representative countries under three different scenarios for 2030 and 2050.The results show that the maximum capacity to be installed in 2030 in Europe will be 3.5 TW, while it will be 4.8 TW in 2050. Correspondingly, LCOE is expected to be 22-62 USD/MWh in 2030 and 15-44 USD/MWh in 2050, depending on scenario assumptions. These findings provide essential inputs for policymakers and energy modelers, thus enabling the integration of country-specific solar PV supply curves into country energy plans. This will support more accurate and spatially resolved planning pathways towards achieving both cost-effective decarbonization and long-term climate targets.