Impact of Climate Change on Solar PV Potential in Europe

In the Net Zero Emissions Scenario, the large majority of electrical energy will largely be supplied by renewables, including solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. However, solar PV potential depends on ambient conditions, i.e., air temperature, surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR) and wind speed, which are expected to vary in the future due to climate change. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on solar PV potential in Europe. To this purpose, solar PV potential in years 2081-2100 is compared to that of years 1971-1990. Ambient conditions are extracted from Copernicus Climate Data Store and five combinations of climate models are analyzed. The results show that average air temperature in Europe in years 2081-2100 is expected to be +2.0 °C higher than that in years 1971-1990, while SDSR and wind speed will reduce by 1.4% and increase by 0.3%, respectively. As a result, solar PV potential in Europe will decrease by 2.4%, mainly due to the reduction of SDSR.