Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: Methods and Approaches for Damage and Risk Assessment Addressed to a Practical Application

In the last 20 years, research on the observed and projected impacts of climate change on cultural heritage has led to significant developments regarding damage quantification and risk assessment, which unfortunately are not yet exhaustively transferred to practical applications and to the sector of policy and decision making. One of the major reasons for this still lacking alignment remains with the inadequate handover of quantitative data, which is a prerequisite for the development of measures and strategies for the mitigation of the impacts and risk reduction. In this paper, we focus on the methods and approaches put in place for the production of projections providing quantitative assessments of climate change-induced impacts in the near and far future (up to the 21st century) on outdoor built heritage mainly constituted by stone and stone-like materials. Our critical study found that different approaches have been applied for quantifying slow cumulative damage due to the ongoing variations of climate and air pollution parameters and to risk assessment caused by hydrometeorological extreme events induced by variations of temperature and precipitation. There is clear evidence that efforts are still needed for directing research to provide concrete solutions and tools addressed to meet the requirements of stakeholders and to solve the existing challenges in the field: selected effective models and tools are illustrated. The discussion is structured in order to highlight the driving role of research in supporting the definition of priorities for heritage managers and the development of strategies by decision and policy makers for the prevention and safeguarding of cultural heritage at risk.