Sales forecasting uses historical sales figures, in association with products characteristics and peculiarities, to predict short-term or long-term future performance in a business, and it can be used to derive sound financial and business plans. By using publicly available data, we build an accurate regression model for online sales forecasting obtained via a novel feature selection methodology composed by the application of the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm ENORA (Evolutionary NOn-dominated Radial slots based Algorithm) as search strategy in a wrapper method driven by the well-known regression model learner Random Forest. Our proposal integrates feature selection for regression, model evaluation, and decision making, in order to choose the most satisfactory model according to an a posteriori process in a multi-objective context. We test and compare the performances of ENORA as multi-objective evolutionary search strategy against a standard multi-objective evolutionary search strategy such as NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm), against a classical backward search strategy such as RFE (Recursive Feature Elimination), and against the original data set.

Multi-objective evolutionary feature selection for online sales forecasting

SCIAVICCO, Guido;
2017

Abstract

Sales forecasting uses historical sales figures, in association with products characteristics and peculiarities, to predict short-term or long-term future performance in a business, and it can be used to derive sound financial and business plans. By using publicly available data, we build an accurate regression model for online sales forecasting obtained via a novel feature selection methodology composed by the application of the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm ENORA (Evolutionary NOn-dominated Radial slots based Algorithm) as search strategy in a wrapper method driven by the well-known regression model learner Random Forest. Our proposal integrates feature selection for regression, model evaluation, and decision making, in order to choose the most satisfactory model according to an a posteriori process in a multi-objective context. We test and compare the performances of ENORA as multi-objective evolutionary search strategy against a standard multi-objective evolutionary search strategy such as NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm), against a classical backward search strategy such as RFE (Recursive Feature Elimination), and against the original data set.
Jiménez, Fernando; Sánchez, Gracia; García, José Manuel; Sciavicco, Guido; Miralles, Luis
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11392/2366900
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