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EnglishThe methodology proposed here is aimed at providing both the deterministic water demand forecast and an estimation of the uncertainty affecting this forecast. Two models based on non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chains (named Markov Chain A - MCA and Markov Chain B – MCB, respectively) are developed. These models are applied to three real case-studies with the aim of forecasting hourly water consumptions up to 6 hours ahead. The results obtained show that model based on the homogeneous Markov Chain (MCB) provides more accurate short term forecasts than the non-homogeneous Markov Chain model (MCA) and concurrently is capable of providing useful information about the forecasting uncertainty.
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| Titolo: | Markov Chain based model for probabilistic short term water demand forecasting |
| Autori: | |
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2016 |
| Abstract: | The methodology proposed here is aimed at providing both the deterministic water demand forecast and an estimation of the uncertainty affecting this forecast. Two models based on non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chains (named Markov Chain A - MCA and Markov Chain B – MCB, respectively) are developed. These models are applied to three real case-studies with the aim of forecasting hourly water consumptions up to 6 hours ahead. The results obtained show that model based on the homogeneous Markov Chain (MCB) provides more accurate short term forecasts than the non-homogeneous Markov Chain model (MCA) and concurrently is capable of providing useful information about the forecasting uncertainty. |
| Handle: | http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2361779 |
| Appare nelle tipologie: | 04.2 Contributi in atti di convegno (in Volume) |
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