The Nexus Bioenergy-Economy-Land-use-GHG Emissions: Experience from Colombia

In the 20th century, industrialization and population growth led to a rapid increase in world energy consumption. This trend has been followed in recent years by various emerging economies (e.g. BRICS) and it is likely that other developing countries move along that path in the future. However, the need to meet a growing energy demand to sustain economic growth has resulted in serious negative impacts including climate change, deforestation, soil and water contamination, loss of biodiversity and concerns on water supply. The depth and intensity of linkages between climate, energy, water, land and development make a multidisciplinary approach necessary, in order to thoroughly investigate their nexus and achieve a more efficient use of resources as well as cross-sectorial consistence. In this context, this lecture presents some guidelines gained by applying a modeling framework which addresses the energy, economy, emissions and land use nexus when exploiting bioenergy in developing countries. The modeling framework combines a qualitative and a quantitative element. The qualitative element integrates two components: 1) technology roadmapping to identify long-term technology targets through expert judgment and 2) scenario analysis to investigate different future storylines. The quantitative element comprises four integrated tools, namely the energy system model (ESM), the land use and trade model (LUTM), an economic model, and an external climate model. An overview of the modeling framework, scenario analysis, structure of the models, modelling techniques, mathematical formulations and assumptions is presented and discussed. The modeling framework is applied to the particular context of Colombia, as a case study of a developing country with large bioenergy potential. The impacts that an accelerated deployment of bioenergy technologies might cause on the energy demand and supply, emissions and land use until 2030 are evaluated.