Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?

In the first decade of the twenty-first century, Ethiopia has been subjected to an increased frequency of flash floods, especially in the town of Dire Dawa. The results of international organizations studies point to no evidence of a climate-driven change in the magnitude/frequency of floods, though increases in runoff and risk of floods in East Africa are expected. Flash floods are posing constraints to the economic growth and the development process of a low-income country such as Ethiopia, and, in order to mitigate such hazard, it is crucial to understand the relative roles of two main factors: rainfall intensity and land use change. This study analyses the recent trends of rainfall intensity across Ethiopia and investigates the relative role of rainfall intensity and land use change in augmenting the frequency of flash flooding of the town of Dire Dawa by the Dechatu River. Results indicate that the increase in rainfall intensity is a more important factor than land use change in controlling the increased frequency of flash flood in Dire Dawa.