Rapid estimation of potential yield for data-poor Tapes philippinarum fisheries in North Adriatic coastal lagoons

We show how a simple species distribution model can be used for the rapid estimation of potential yield and for the identification of suitable sites for farming of Tapes philippinarum in two North Adriatic lagoons (Caleri and Marinetta-Vallona, Italy) in the face of limited data. We used a two-part species distribution model with sediment type, hydrodynamism, dissolved oxygen, and salinity as predictors of T. philippinarum potential yield. The first model component uses logistic regression to identify the areas in which clams occur, while the second component uses a weighted geometric mean of suitability values to estimate the potential annual yield (kg m-2 year-1) for the sites where T. philippinarum is predicted to be present. We used site-specific yield data from Caleri and Marinetta-Vallona to estimate the weights of the geometric mean by constrained linear regression. We validated the two-part model on an independent set of yield data (R adj2 = 0.82), and we then estimated the spa...