De Finetti suggested that scoring rules - namely, loss functions by which a forecaster is virtually charged depending on the degree of inaccuracy of his predictions - could be employed also to provide a compelling argument for probabilism. However, De Finetti' s choice of a specifi c scoring rule for this purpose (Brier' s quadratic rule) appears somewhat arbitrary, and the general pragmatic flavour of the argument - which makes it a variant of the well-known "Dutch Book Theorem" has been deemed unsuitable for an epistemic justification of probabilism. In this paper we suggest how Brier' s rule may be justified on epistemic grounds by means of a strategy that is diff erent from the one usually adopted for this purpose, taking advantage of a recent characterization result concerning distance functions between real-valued vectors.

Epistemic accuracy and subjective probability.

D'AGOSTINO, Marcello;
2010

Abstract

De Finetti suggested that scoring rules - namely, loss functions by which a forecaster is virtually charged depending on the degree of inaccuracy of his predictions - could be employed also to provide a compelling argument for probabilism. However, De Finetti' s choice of a specifi c scoring rule for this purpose (Brier' s quadratic rule) appears somewhat arbitrary, and the general pragmatic flavour of the argument - which makes it a variant of the well-known "Dutch Book Theorem" has been deemed unsuitable for an epistemic justification of probabilism. In this paper we suggest how Brier' s rule may be justified on epistemic grounds by means of a strategy that is diff erent from the one usually adopted for this purpose, taking advantage of a recent characterization result concerning distance functions between real-valued vectors.
2010
9789048132621
De Finetti; Scoring rules; Probabilism
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11392/1803502
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