The difficult union of effectiveness and efficiency of the forecasting models in the corporate crisis prediction: a comparative analysis.

The present work aims to compare some of the most relevant forecasting models to predict corporate crisis developed both in national and international literature in relation to two specific parameter classes: effectiveness and efficiency. In the last decades, there has been an increasing tendency of some scholars to pay more attention to the methodological features adopted in the elaboration process of the forecasting model. In particular, these instruments have been at the core of a gradual improvement, especially from a mathematical and statistical point of view. Throughout the years corrective interventions have been introduced with the specific aim to improve the logical and technical structure. These processes of methodological deepening and refining have led to the creation of particularly sophisticated instruments. The prediction of company difficulties is an extremely important issue since a company bankruptcy can have serious repercussions on a vast number of operators (managers, professionals, creditors, auditing companies, banks, stock exchange operators, shareholders, the company itself, etc.). This is why most of the studies have been particularly aimed at increasing the reliability of these instruments. The above-mentioned refining process is frequently coupled with a great deal of complexity especially in the application of instruments in both professional and managerial fields. The high cost of some of the models makes these instruments exclusive but, at the same time, hardly usable by smaller firms which represent the majority of employer firms in the Italian economy. These considerations should not be underestimated since they could affect, in crucial way, the effective usability of the forecasting models. Although some instruments are characterized by high-precision diagnostics, they were found to be hardly usable: this difficulty depends on the economic organizational sacrifice that follows its use. This study aim to provide a contribution to the existing literature in this field through a series of evaluations of the effectiveness and the organizational and economic efficiency of forecasting models.