A Panel data heterogeneous Bayesian estimation of environmental Kuznets curves for CO2 emissions

This paper investigates the environmental Kuznets curves (EKC) for CO2 emissions in a panel of 109 countries during the period 1959-2001. The length of the series makes the application of a heterogeneous estimator suitable from an econometric point of view. The results, based on the hierarchical Bayes estimator, show that different EKC dynamics are associated with the different sub-samples of countries considered. On average, more industrialized countries show evidence of EKC in quadratic specifications, which nevertheless are probably evolving into an N shape based on their cubic specification. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the EU, and not the Umbrella group led by US, has been driving currently observed EKC-like shapes. The latter is associated to monotonic income-CO2 dynamics. The EU shows a clear EKC shape. Evidence for less developed countries consistently shows that CO2 emissions rise positively with income, though there are some signs of an EKC. Analyses of future performance, nevertheless, favor quadratic specifications, thus supporting EKC evidence for wealthier countries and non-EKC shapes for industrializing regions.