In this paper, a procedure for Risk Assessment, which makes use of two risk indices (PML e Probable Maximum Loss and MFL e Maximum Foreseeable Loss) is applied to power plants to evaluate potential economic losses due to risk exposure for two different loss scenarios (probable and worst-case). First, the procedure is presented in order to provide a prediction of probable and maximum loss as a function of power output. Second, the economic loss predicted through the risk assessment procedure is compared to real power plant loss values, taken from published data, to validate the methodology against field data. Finally, the procedure is applied to some combined-cycle power plants by also including the contribution of business interruption losses. In this manner, the most common sources of loss are identified. A sample analysis for risk/benefit evaluation is also carried out to estimate whether the adoption of risk assessment procedures allows an actual profit for plant owners. Customer feedback is also discussed. The results presented in this paper allow a practical and easy-to-use rule of thumb for loss estimation and a guideline for plant owners to evaluate the impact of risk assessment procedures on operational costs.

Property Risk Assessment for Power Plants: Methodology, Validation and Application

VENTURINI, Mauro
2011

Abstract

In this paper, a procedure for Risk Assessment, which makes use of two risk indices (PML e Probable Maximum Loss and MFL e Maximum Foreseeable Loss) is applied to power plants to evaluate potential economic losses due to risk exposure for two different loss scenarios (probable and worst-case). First, the procedure is presented in order to provide a prediction of probable and maximum loss as a function of power output. Second, the economic loss predicted through the risk assessment procedure is compared to real power plant loss values, taken from published data, to validate the methodology against field data. Finally, the procedure is applied to some combined-cycle power plants by also including the contribution of business interruption losses. In this manner, the most common sources of loss are identified. A sample analysis for risk/benefit evaluation is also carried out to estimate whether the adoption of risk assessment procedures allows an actual profit for plant owners. Customer feedback is also discussed. The results presented in this paper allow a practical and easy-to-use rule of thumb for loss estimation and a guideline for plant owners to evaluate the impact of risk assessment procedures on operational costs.
2011
Orme, G. J.; Venturini, Mauro
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11392/1449113
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